While 2025 is considered an “off year” for elections to federal offices, there are still a handful of interesting state and city races to watch around the United States. These four elections (and one ballot measure), all of which take place on Nov. 4, are certain to have lasting impacts on their states and the country as a whole. Republicans aim to maintain their momentum following the 2024 presidential election, while Democrats hope to regain some ground. Along with a general overview of each election and why it matters, I will also lock in a prediction before results are confirmed later this week.
New York City Mayoral Race
Zohran Mamdani (D) vs. Curtis Sliwa (R) vs. Andrew Cuomo (I)
The New York City mayoralty has widely been dubbed the “second-toughest job in America,” right behind the role of president of the United States itself. Easily the most interesting race this cycle takes place in the financial capital of the country — not because it will be particularly contentious, but because of the breakout nature of the candidate who is widely projected to win.
Prior to 2025, few knew the name of New York state Assemblyman and Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani’s name. However, due to effective social media strategies and an indisputably charismatic personality, Mamdani’s star has risen both around the United States and in New York City. He is running on a campaign centered on freezing rent and improving access to transportation, as well as pushing back against President Trump.
His biggest opponent? Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who resigned from office in 2021 following a series of sexual harassment allegations. Cuomo lost to Mamdani in the Democratic primary, but decided to continue his campaign as an independent, running on platforms of improved education and new affordable housing.
Finally, anti-Trump Republican Curtis Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels, is running on a campaign of boosting New York City’s economy through revitalization and promoting further public safety. While Sliwa has not been predicted to have much of a fighting chance, he has gone viral on social media throughout the election for his energetic nature. Eric Adams, New York City’s current mayor, had previously been in the race as an independent, but dropped out and has refused to endorse any of the remaining candidates.
Generally, all three candidates share relatively similar platforms; however, their methods of implementation vary. With most major polling organizations expecting Mamdani to win, questions are being posed about how well a Democratic-Socialist will fare in a position of so much power. Expect to see Mamdani win comfortably here — he’s a Democrat in New York, after all — and expect eyes across the United States to be watching his every move.
PREDICTION: Zohran Mamdani (D)
New Jersey Gubernatorial Race
Mikie Sherrill (D) vs. Jack Ciattarelli (R)
The New Jersey gubernatorial race promises to be much closer than that of the New York mayoral election. Incumbent Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy is unable to run due to term limits, so U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill from New Jersey’s 11th District is running on the Democratic ticket, while Jack Ciattarelli, a Republican businessman who lost to Murphy in the previous election, is running against her.
The two disagree on almost everything, especially on issues such as taxes and energy, though they are surprisingly aligned on a small handful of issues, such as abortion. Both candidates’ campaigns have been aggressive towards the other and demonstrated the immense division between the pair. Mikie Sherrill is generally predicted to win this race narrowly, but her projected margin of victory gets smaller every day. This is probably a toss-up.
PREDICTION: Mikie Sherrill (D)
Virginia Gubernatorial Race
Winsome Earle-Sears (R) vs. Abigail Spanberger (D)
While New Jersey’s gubernational race promises to be a close one, Virginia’s is more likely to be won with a wider margin. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is, like Murphy, term-limited, opening the door for his second-in-command, Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears to run against former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger.
Spanberger is running on a platform of reversing Youngkin and Trump’s economic policies, while Earle-Sears has vowed to maintain the policies that got Youngkin elected. Polls generally favor Spanberger, and Democrats in Virginia in general, heavily. Notably, Virginia has never had a woman serve as governor, and with two women running against each other, history is sure to be made no matter the result.
PREDICTION: Abigail Spanberger (D)
Virginia Attorney General Race
Jason Miyares (R) vs. Jay Jones (D)
While not a notable office on the national scene, the Virginia attorney general race has made headlines for controversy surrounding the online presence of Democratic candidate Jay Jones, who had violent and incendiary texts between him and a friend leaked online. Because of this, the attorney general race is expected to be one of the only close races on the statewide scale in Virginia.
Jones has promised to push back against Trump if elected, while Republican Jason Miyares, the incumbent attorney general, has promised to keep pursuing policies related to drug recovery and victims’ rights. This is another race projected to be close, but I predict Miyares has the edge.
PREDICTION: Jason Miyares (R)
Proposition 50 (California Ballot Measure)
The final election to watch this cycle is not actually an election, but instead a ballot measure in California. If you’ve been paying attention to recent political news, states like Texas have been attempting to manipulate their legislative maps to create more districts for their majority party, and thus give them more representatives in Congress. California’s Proposition 50 attempts to do the same thing, gerrymandering California to create more seats for the Democrats. With California being a Democrat stronghold, there is no reason to believe this won’t pass.
PREDICTION: Passes
